Title Race Simulator

A grand sumo tournament lasts 15 days, and wrestlers in the Makuuchi and Juryo divisions fight one bout every day. Eight or more wins out of 15 is a winning record (kachikoshi) and eight or more losses is a losing record (makekoshi); as a rule, a winning record moves a wrestler up the rankings for the next tournament and a losing record moves him down. This page shows how many more wins each wrestler needs for a winning record and how likely he is to get there in his remaining bouts.

The championship goes to the wrestler with the most wins over the 15 days; if two or more are tied, a playoff is held after the final regular bouts. The championship odds are the share of 2,000 simulated runs of the remaining bouts in which a wrestler won the title. Days whose matchups are already announced use those matchups. For days that are not yet scheduled, wrestlers close in rank are paired through day 10 and wrestlers with similar win totals after that, because the real schedule also pits the title contenders against each other in the final days.

Each wrestler's strength is derived mechanically from his rank, his record in this tournament and his record in the previous two tournaments. Injuries, day-to-day condition and head-to-head matchups are not reflected, so please treat the numbers as a rough guide. For a wrestler who withdraws partway, missed days count the same as losses and he is assumed to have no further bouts; if he returns, he is included again once his matchup for that day is posted.